2011 - The World of Wind Energy Part 1

From http://www.city-data.com/city/Sheldon-New-York.html - after all, no city webpage is complete without a nifty picture of a wind turbine in town (you also can click on http://www.city-data.com/picfilesc/picc50574.php). This is one of the "Sheldon High Winds" 75 unit array (a GE 1.5 MW x 77 meter long blade on an 80 meter tall tower) in Sheldon, NY, near the Wyoming/Erie County border. And it's just so darn cool looking.... as well as partly powering up the very device you are reading this article on if you are in the Western NY area when this is occurring. And, as Mylie Cyrus is rumored to say, "And that's pretty darn cool, too..." BTW, hey City of Buffalo government, what's the problem here? When are you going to join the 21st century?

Anyway, 2011 is gone, and for many of us, we want to keep it that way. The pretty poor economic situation around here does leave one hoping for a better 2012, though in theory, it could be worse (after all, in January 2009, the economy was shrinking at a 7.5%/year rate or more and three quarters of a million Americans were losing their jobs per month - eeks!). But, despite the less than desirable economic situation, it looks like about 45 to 50 GW of new wind capacity (worth about $US 70 billion) was installed last year worldwide, bring the worldwide total to near 245 GW (a GW is a gigawatt, or 1000 megawatts (MW)). If every country had the wind turbine performance of the US, that would be about 73 GW of average delivered output, or the equal to 73 Nine Mile 2 nukes (for 2010 anyway). So, still think this is a trivial pursuit of some idealistic hippies (and yes, that is so true) and no one else? Of course, not every country has such a wind turbine performance (China is a total slacker in that regard, and they now have about 25% of the world's wind turbine capacity, with almost all of that "Made in China", too). But even with that caveat, wind is a big source of jobs, economic development, invested wealth as well as delivered electricity made with no possibility of "nuke belch" or CO2 pollution, and depletion of the resource is not a real issue.....

In the US, about 8 GW was installed last year, bringing our total to about 46 GW capacity, and a delivered average of about 14 GW, or 14 nukes that deliver 1 GW. All indications are that over 10 GW will be installed in 2012, as developers rush to get their projects finished before the Federal incentives disappear on December 31, 2012. Consider that to be "Pumpkin Time" in a renewable energy version of Cinderella.... More and more of the ones installed in America are being made in America, even if a lot of the companies making them are European (Vestas, Gamesa, Siemens, REPower, Nordex) or Indian (Suzlon). More importantly, the supply chain is filling out. Making wind turbines is very metalworking intensive (sort of related to cars, trucks and locomotives), and states like Michigan and Ohio are pursuing these opportunities intensely, as are our neighbors in Ontario and Quebec.

As for NY State, still pretty much zip-ola on the wind turbine manufacturing jobs front; that is where most of the jobs associated with the wind biz are situated and the most desirable ones as far as economics are concerned. It appears that the NY State capacity is now near 1350 MW, and will be close to 1800 MW by the end of 2012, delivering more electricity than the rated capacity of the Huntley (400 MW) coal burner (though there should be to replace the output of the Dunkirk unit (540 MW)). 1800 MW of wind turbine capacity is roughly $3.5 to $4 billion invested, and there SHOULD be a lot of manufacturing jobs associated with that, but NY State officials have instead stressed the pollution-less electricity made, the avoided fossil fuel combustion (essentially, all natural gas), the avoided CO2 pollution as well as the construction and installation jobs that temporarily were needed to install the roughly 900 turbines so far. At present, that is of SECONDARY importance; manufacturing job creation should be of PRIMARY importance, as that leads to other permanent job creation. Oh well, instead, we stress the booby prize, the "Miss Congeniality" award of economic development, while Ontario, Quebec, Michigan, Ohio and even Pennsylvania have their eyes on the real prize...

World wide, Europe again installed about 10 GW (total now near 90 GW), and the average size of new onshore turbines is evolving to a 3 MW per turbine rating. Europe is now the technological leader in this field - it is where India and China buy and/or steal most of their wind technology from these days. Over 1 GW of offshore wind capacity was installed, and 5.5 GW was under construction, with over 200 GW "permitted" or "under consideration"; this sub-field is set up for rapid exponential growth, with 40 GW anticipated to be installed by 2020. Europe has targeted offshore wind as a major business/job growth sector, with about 150,000 people anticipated to be employed in it by 2020. The decision by Germany to cancel its nuclear option after the first Fukushima reactor hydrogen gas explosion has intensified the offshore push. Furthermore, the strong connection between the high skilled, high quality manufacturing sector employment and wind turbines is firmly established. Any attempts to impede wind turbine development will now get an intense push-back from the banking/finance sector, the business sector and organized labor, as well as the "enviro's".... The design of a North Sea "super-grid" of at least a 10 GW rating to move the offshore derived electricity to all of Europe is also underway (also a great Keynesian-like economic stimulus...).

China has manufactured another 20 GW of wind turbines in 2010 (see http://www.worldfutureenergysummit.com/Portal/news/4/9/2011/world-wind-energy-association-report.aspx), bring their total to 65 GW. However, over 20 GW of that has yet to be connected to the grid (the turbines are installed, but not wired in...). Of the turbines that are grid connected, the average output is in the 11% of capacity range (about 38% of the US average, or less), and this is not due to them being installed in poor wind regions. Most of this problem is due to either poor grid quality and/or especially poor manufacturing quality. Part of this is a result of China's reason for making and installing these - they want steel, concrete, machine tools, the components (generators, gears, transformers, transmissions, bolts, rebar, etc.), concrete and labor to be consumed, and they really don't care what the end result is, though they really would prefer that it was exported. But since much of the technology of their turbines is either licensed or stolen and is of poor quality, their export options are limited. One "niche" they are pushing is the use of permanent magnet generators (PMG), which are slightly more efficient than "doubly fed" electromagnet based generators, since the preferred magnets are rare earth based (especially neodynium based - the so-called NIB materials - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neodymium_magnet). However, the main benefit of PMGs is that they can be used in "poor quality grids" and that they can be started up without an initial use of grid-based electricity needed to magnetize the rotor electromagnet in the "doubly fed" generators (and China has significant grid quality issues). Another issue in China is electricity cost - since they have essentially no pollution control costs (no controls, filters and scrubbers - no cost!) on coal based electricity, it is very cheap (so is the labor to extract this coal; coal mines in China can be worse than horrid prison camps). Manufacturing things that use a lot of electricity (especially solar panels) can be really low cost when the electricity is low cost, and lower cost than everywhere else (labor, pollution control and electricity, especially) is an essential core part of the Chinese mercentilistic export strategy (i.e. drive everyone else out of business/monopolize the business/keep restive populations busy by working them hard at barely survival wages).

So this is a bit of a problem for China. They need electricity production to grow, and wind turbines can supply this at ~ 6 to 10 c/kw-hr, and it uses neither coal or natural gas in the process. China has arrived at "Peak Coal" - they now must import some coal from countries like Australia, Indonesia, Mozambique, South Africa and the U.S. to make up for what they cannot produce domestically. And China mines a lot of coal, but they burn even more. Coal is a depletable resource, and China is burning through the easy to extract coal at a prodigious rate - over half of all coal consumed in the world is burned in China - mostly for electricity, heat, steel and ammonia production. China now competes with India (who can only supply about half of their needs) on the world market for coal. This is why U.S. east coast coal prices are now $80/ton versus $50/ton these days; China and India now import coal from the U.S. (mostly east coast) at a rate of close to 150 million tons/yr - or 15% of all coal produced.

Wow, what a trade - we export coal to "Chindia"and import Walmart sold manufactured crap from "Chindia", as well as iPhones, TVs, tools, iPads, computers, apparel and shoes as well as solar panels. China would love to add wind turbines to that list, but there is the quality problem, which they hope to overcome via using cheap Chinese sourced credit (in effect, another Walmart curse - the profits from the cheap Walmart crap are used to finance purchase of made in China wind turbines..).

Development Trends
One nifty world wide trend is that wind turbines are going world wide - such as Brazil's 2011 big bulk purchase, the developments in one of Mexico's "wind tunnels" (Oaxaca), South Australia's wind surge and the recent Morrocan 850 MW tender. FYI - India now has 14 GW of installed capacity, and they are also headed "offshore", where their mediocre land based wind resource can be significantly augmented. South Africa also recently announced several new wind projects (coinciding with the Durban conference). Canada is also developing at least 1 GW/yr, and that will accelerate with Ontario's FIT pricing system (and now, Nova Scotia).

In general, wind turbines have been getting both bigger and more dependable. Except for China, competition between manufacturers, combined with Feed-In Tariffs, is pushing the technology in many good ways. Of late, Low Wind Speed Turbines (LWST), which can be roughly classified as having a power ratio (swept rotor are divided by generator rating) of 4 m^2/kw or more have been accounting for significant sales. Augmenting those are "medium wind speed turbines", with a power ratio between 3 to 4 m^2/kw; they have been getting larger, and offshore versions of these are now offered (such as the Siemens 3.6 MW x 120 m rotor diameter model, and the Vestas V112). Many manufacturers now offer turbines for onshore installation of 3 MW or more (Siemens, Vestas, REPower, Enercon, Gamesa, WinWinD, Fuhrlaender), and the 2.5 MW size is now COMMON. In the U.S., towers taller than 80 meters are now available (these go with LWST and bigger rotors). In 2012, some may even be "hybrid towers" that are common in Europe - a lower concrete section and an upper steel, one, with heights of 100, 120 and 140 meters available.

Finally, there is the real push to make onshore wind a major factor in Europe. Wind speeds average over 9 m/s in much of the North Sea (and often greater than 10 m/s), and above 8 m/s in much of the Baltic Sea. Since the amount of power production is proportional to the cube of the wind speed, a given region at 10 m/s can provide over 4.6 times as much power as can a zone with a 6 m/s wind resource, for the same rotor area. Plus, transporting big blades and towers is easier by water than on land, and in general, there are no neighbors offshore. Offshore wind has been demonstrated for over 20 years at commercial scale, and the challenge has been with foundations, underwater cables, offshore transformer stations as well as making and installing these on time and under budget. In general, that is NORMAL now, unlike for nukes, where cost over-runs seems to be the rule and not the exception. Offshore wind derived electricity is now cheaper than making electricity with a new nuke, and after Fukushima...

The full effects of the Fukushima disaster on Japan have still not been felt. TEPCO, the owner of the Daiichi complex, was one of the biggest companies in the world, and now it is "the walking corporate dead" - bankrupt in practice but not allowed to be on an official basis. Too bad the Obama Administration has yet to get the message...... However, the ongoing disaster has spelled the practical end of nukes, and wind energy is still between 5 to 10 times less costly than solar as a way to make mass quantities of electricity. More importantly, no private consortia will finance nukes (which cost over $10 billion per unit and take close to a decade to make). Odds are, Japan will soon see an enormous push for offshore and onshore wind energy development to replace out their nuclear and fossil fuel sourced electricity.

As for the U.S., "Pumpkin Time" (December 31, 2012) is fast approaching, and the delay in either replacing the tax avoidance based subsidies with a sane pricing system or else extending them is likely to cost 30,000 jobs, at least, starting in 2013. Until that situation is rectified, many of the remaining 40,000 people employed in the wind biz will also be endangered, as will be many of their employers. All because Republicans in general and the "teahadist" branch in particular put either their ideology (can't delay the Rapture, belief that there is no such thing as Global Warming, belief that what's good for the 1% is good for them and the rest of the country, and loyalty to those who buy and/or rent them via campaign contributions) or their belief that bringing our country to its economic knees will allow a Republican to be President and allow Republican control of the Senate and the House in the 2012 elections, above that of our country. In other words, the needs of a few outweigh the needs of the many. Well, obviously, they are no fans of Vulcan (Star Trek) morality, even if the Texas Supreme Court once was... (http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101027/05183111607/texas-supreme-court-cites-the-wisdom-of-spock-on-star-trek.shtml)

Anyway, the official numbers will come out in early February, and they will show how the rate of wind turbine installations is still increasing (GW capacity installed per year), despite poor economic prospects. Last year, the amount of wind power installed (capacity or net produced by this new capacity) was greater than the nuke installs for 2011. In the U.S., wind turbine produced electricity is significantly cutting into sales of (and the probability of a higher price for) natural gas. The avoided gas amouts to almost 1 trillion cubic feet of methane per year, or over 4% of that consumed. And that is definitely enough gas not burned to affect natural gas prices in a major way, and one beneficial to most gas customers, too. Viewed another way, this is close to 14 x 1.1 MW nukes that did not get built, and that is a good thing, too. It sure beats having to get a full body scan for radio-isotope ingestion as will be the norm in Japan for annual doctor visits....

What would really be nice for 2012 in the wind biz is for the general public to understand the combination of the job creation potential of the mass production of wind turbines (say, at a rate of 10 times what was done this year) coupled to our country's enormous wind energy potential. Or that certain environmental organizations (it's too large a list) would join with the Sierra Club and understand the the job issue is of far more immediate importance to most Americans than is the longer term threats posed by elevated CO2 levels, or of the health effects of wide scale fracking and continued wide scale use of coal when we could be using a combination of wind energy and pumped hydro storage. Heck, maybe even the NY State government could figure out the potential of pumped hydro in NY State for Ontario, Ohio and Indiana....

Oh well, I guess a person can wish...

DB